Tories set sights on Oldham as top target in next election

According to research compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth on behalf of the PA news agency, the BBC, ITN, and Sky News, the Oldham East and Saddleworth constituency, currently held by Labour’s Debbie Abrahams, is one of the Conservative party’s top target seats for the next general election, which is widely believed to take place later this year.

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The lists of target seats are based on the size of the swing needed to gain the seat based on the notional outcome in 2019.

The lists are ranked according to the size of the swing to gain, starting with the smallest.

Oldham East and Saddleworth is the 17th highest on the list, with a 1.62 percentage point swing needed for the Tories to gain the seat off Labour.

The top Tory target is Warrington South, with just a 0.06 percentage point swing needed, according to the research.

Top target seats were also listed for other parties, with a full list below.

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Local party bullish on ‘reduced majority’

In response to the research, Oldham Tory spokesperson Cllr Dave Arnott confirmed that the party was looking to take the seat off Labour at the next general election – despite poor polling performance nationally.

He said: “It should come as no surprise that the Conservatives will target Oldham East and Saddleworth in the next General Election later this year. 

“As a party, we have always had a strong presence on Oldham Metropolitan Borough Council, particularly from the Saddleworth North and Saddleworth South wards.

“At the last General Election in 2019, our candidate, Tom Lord, ran Debbie Abrahams very close with the Labour Party eventually retaining the seat with a much-reduced majority of only 1,499.

“It will be the case again, that the Conservatives are the only party that can defeat Debbie Abrahams in the east of our borough, and that a vote for any other party is a vote for Labour.”

Cllr Dave Arnott was bullish about the Conservatives' prospects

MP criticises ‘failing’ Tory party

In response, Debbie Abrahams criticised the Conservatives’ record in government.

The incumbent MP said: "The Tory Party should concentrate on the targets they have set themselves in Government.

“Whether it's NHS waiting lists, police on our streets, or levelling up – they're failing on multiple fronts.

“I’m focused on tackling these inequalities and delivering for the people of Oldham East and Saddleworth.”

Debbie Abrahams criticised the Conservative party (Image: PA)

List of target seats in full

The lists are ranked according to the size of the swing to gain, starting with the smallest. Where appropriate, the swing takes account of the need to overtake the second-placed party.

The next election will be held using new constituency boundaries, which means the results cannot be compared directly with what happened at the last general election in 2019.

Here is a list of the top target seats for the main political parties at the next general election.

The election is being held using new constituency boundaries, which means the results cannot be compared directly with what happened at the last general election in 2019.

To measure how well the parties do at the next election, and to determine which seats they need to win to form a government, a set of notional results for the 2019 election has been calculated to show what would have happened if that contest had taken place using the new boundaries.

These notional results have been compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, on behalf of the PA news agency, the BBC, ITN and Sky News.

The lists of target seats are based on the size of the swing needed to gain the seat based on the notional outcome in 2019.

The top 50 targets have been listed for Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, with the top 10 for other parties (top nine for the SNP, as they can only make a maximum of nine gains).

The lists are ranked according to the size of the swing to gain, starting with the smallest.

In each case, the name of the constituency is followed (in brackets) by the notional 2019 winner of the seat, then by the size of the swing needed to gain, in percentage points.

Labour targets

1 Burnley (Con) 0.13 percentage points

2 Leigh & Atherton (Con) 0.33

3 High Peak (Con) 0.54

4 Bangor Aberconwy (Con) 0.77

5 Wolverhampton West (Con) 0.92

6 Bury South (Con) 0.94

7 Bury North (Con) 1.20

8 Bolton North East (Con) 1.28

9 Watford (Con) 1.35

10 Chingford & Woodford Green (Con) 1.47

11 Wycombe (Con) 1.59

12 Birmingham Northfield (Con) 1.69

13 Leeds North West (Con) 1.80

14 Stroud (Con) 2.03

15 Keighley & Ilkley (Con) 2.11

16 Stoke-on-Trent Central (Con) 2.11

17 Whitehaven & Workington (Con) 2.17

18 Lothian East (SNP) 2.17

19 Gedling (Con) 2.22

20 Walsall & Bloxwich (Con) 2.40

21 Peterborough (Con) 2.47

22 Vale of Glamorgan (Con) 2.57

23 West Bromwich (Con) 2.60

24 Cheshire Mid (Con) 2.66

25 Wakefield & Rothwell (Con) 2.67

26 Ynys Mon (Con) 2.69

27 Derby North (Con) 2.70

28 Bridgend (Con) 2.73

29 Clwyd North (Con) 2.76

30 Lancaster & Wyre (Con) 3.05

31 Hastings & Rye (Con) 3.36

32 Eltham & Chislehurst (Con) 3.37

33 Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy (SNP) 3.41

34 Lincoln (Con) 3.47

35 Hyndburn (Con) 3.48

36 Broxtowe (Con) 3.58

37 Chipping Barnet (Con) 3.60

38 Northampton North (Con) 3.85

39 Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor (Con) 3.93

40 Hendon (Con) 4.01

41 Truro & Falmouth (Con) 4.04

42 Wrexham (Con) 4.18

43 Hull West & Haltemprice (Con) 4.35

44 Blackpool South (Con) 4.36

45 Calder Valley (Con) 4.52

46 Milton Keynes Central (Con) 4.70

47 Southampton Itchen (Con) 4.74

48 Clwyd East (Con) 5.00

49 Glasgow North East (SNP) 5.01

50 Darlington (Con) 5.36

Conservative targets

1 Warrington South (Lab) 0.06 percentage points

2 Coventry North West (Lab) 0.22

3 Kensington & Bayswater (Lab) 0.36

4 Alyn & Deeside (Lab) 0.39

5 Wirral West (Lab) 0.41

6 Beckenham & Penge (Lab) 0.52

7 Heywood & Middleton North (Lab) 0.80

8 Dagenham & Rainham (Lab) 0.80

9 Coventry South (Lab) 0.86

10 Warwick & Leamington (Lab) 1.12

11 Bedford (Lab) 1.19

12 Pontefract, Castleford & Knottingley (Lab) 1.31

13 Doncaster Central (Lab) 1.38

14 Ceredigion Preseli (Plaid Cymru) 1.40

15 Rawmarsh & Conisbrough (Lab) 1.55

16 Chesterfield (Lab) 1.61

17 Oldham East & Saddleworth (Lab) 1.62

18 Warrington North (Lab) 1.63

19 Canterbury (Lab) 1.89

20 Halifax (Lab) 1.99

21 Newport West & Islwyn (Lab) 2.06

22 Perth & Kinross-shire (SNP) 2.09

23 Cramlington & Killingworth (Lab) 2.24

24 Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (SNP) 2.50

25 Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey (SNP) 2.58

26 Doncaster North (Lab) 2.58

27 Nottingham North & Kimberley (Lab) 2.89

28 Gower (Lab) 2.93

29 Leeds East (Lab) 3.06

30 Leeds West & Pudsey (Lab) 3.09

31 Wolverhampton South East (Lab) 3.10

32 Tynemouth (Lab) 3.26

33 Bradford South (Lab) 3.34

34 Croydon East (Lab) 3.37

35 Sunderland Central (Lab) 3.41

36 Stalybridge & Hyde (Lab) 3.48

37 Lothian East (SNP) 3.66

38 Hull East (Lab) 3.67

39 Houghton & Sunderland South (Lab) 3.73

40 Rotherham (Lab) 3.79

41 Putney (Lab) 3.98

42 Birmingham Erdington (Lab) 3.98

43 Worsley & Eccles (Lab) 4.00

44 Normanton & Hemsworth (Lab) 4.06

45 Llanelli (Lab) 4.32

46 Hartlepool (Lab) 4.38

47 Durham, City of (Lab) 4.54

48 Blaydon & Consett (Lab) 4.56

49 Stockton North (Lab) 4.61

50 Durham North (Lab) 4.63

Liberal Democrat targets

1 Carshalton & Wallington (Con) 0.64 percentage points

2 Fife North East (SNP) 0.70

3 Wimbledon (Con) 0.74

4 Sheffield Hallam (Lab) 0.92

5 Cambridgeshire South (Con) 1.25

6 Cheltenham (Con) 1.25

7 Dunbartonshire Mid (SNP) 1.70

8 Cheadle (Con) 2.09

9 Eastbourne (Con) 2.11

10 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (SNP) 2.64

11 Esher & Walton (Con) 2.68

12 Guildford (Con) 2.96

13 Lewes (Con) 3.71

14 Hazel Grove (Con) 4.18

15 Westmorland & Lonsdale (Con) 4.74

16 St Ives (Con) 4.85

17 Finchley & Golders Green (Con) 5.98

18 Cities of London & Westminster (Con) 6.05

19 Winchester (Con) 7.08

20 Taunton & Wellington (Con) 7.84

21 Harrogate & Knaresborough (Con) 7.91

22 Cambridge (Lab) 8.14

23 Sutton & Cheam (Con) 8.27

24 Woking (Con) 8.60

25 Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe (Con) 8.70

26 Eastleigh (Con) 8.72

27 Didcot & Wantage (Con) 9.22

28 Bermondsey & Old Southwark (Lab) 9.28

29 Dorking & Horley (Con) 9.52

30 Godalming & Ash (Con) 9.63

31 Dorset West (Con) 10.71

32 Chelsea & Fulham (Con) 10.82

33 Henley & Thame (Con) 11.05

34 Newbury (Con) 11.24

35 Wokingham (Con) 11.59

36 Hitchin (Con) 11.67

37 Hampstead & Highgate (Lab) 11.68

38 St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire (Con) 12.24

39 Ely & East Cambridgeshire (Con) 12.35

40 Devon South (Con) 12.66

41 Wells & Mendip Hills (Con) 12.66

42 Sussex Mid (Con) 12.90

43 Frome & East Somerset (Con) 12.92

44 Thornbury & Yate (Con) 12.96

45 Chippenham (Con) 13.06

46 Farnham & Bordon (Con) 13.27

47 Devon North (Con) 13.33

48 Glastonbury & Somerton (Con) 13.33

49 Tunbridge Wells (Con) 13.40

50 Earley & Woodley (Con) 13.48

Green targets

1 Bristol Central (Lab) 16.23 percentage points

2 Isle of Wight West (Con) 19.30

3 Edinburgh North & Leith (SNP) 20.26

4 Dunfermline & Dollar (SNP) 21.35

5 Frome & East Somerset (Con) 21.61

6 Isle of Wight East (Con) 21.70

7 Hampstead & Highgate (Lab) 21.99

8 Livingston (SNP) 22.34

9 Bathgate & Linlithgow (SNP) 22.46

10 East Kilbride & Strathaven (SNP) 22.48

SNP targets

1 Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (Con) 0.79 percentage points

2 Dumfries & Galloway (Con) 1.48

3 Aberdeenshire North & Moray East (Con) 2.61

4 Edinburgh West (Lib Dem) 2.62

5 Gordon & Buchan (Con) 3.39

6 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con) 4.26

7 Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (Con) 4.84

8 Orkney & Shetland (Lib Dem) 5.41

9 Edinburgh South (Lab) 10.18

– Plaid Cymru targets

1 Ynys Mon (Con) 3.48 percentage points

2 Caerfyrddin (Con) 4.25

3 Llanelli (Lab) 9.53

4 Caerphilly (Lab) 14.59

5 Pontypridd (Lab) 17.87

6 Neath & Swansea East (Lab) 19.70

7 Cardiff West (Lab) 21.34

8 Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare (Lab) 21.78

9 Rhondda & Ogmore (Lab) 21.93

10 Aberafan Maesteg (Lab) 21.97

Reform UK targets

(Based on the notional 2019 performance of the Brexit Party, as Reform UK was then called)

1 Barnsley North (Lab) 4.50 percentage points

2 Hartlepool (Lab) 5.92

3 Barnsley South (Lab) 6.29

4 Doncaster North (Lab) 12.82

5 Easington (Lab) 14.31

6 South Shields (Lab) 14.70

7 Rotherham (Lab) 16.07

8 Normanton & Hemsworth (Lab) 16.19

9 Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney (Lab) 16.20

10 Caerphilly (Lab) 16.85

If you have a story, I cover the whole borough of Oldham. Please get in touch at jack.fifield@newsquest.co.uk or click to send me a message on WhatsApp or on Signal on 07517566383.