GP numbers in Oldham falling, figures show

The Health Foundation warns that serious workforce shortfalls across English GP services pose a significant risk to the quality of health care over the next decade.

NHS England figures show there were the equivalent of 137 full-time GPs in the NHS Oldham Clinical Commissioning Group area at the end of May.

This was down from 146 in June 2021 – the most easily comparable figures from last year.

Across England, there were 35,626 FTE GPs at the end of May – up from 34,726 at the end of June.

However, new analysis by the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre, which does Research and Economic Analysis for the Long term, suggests there is currently a shortage of around 4,200 FTE GPs nationwide.

Researchers project this could rise to around 10,700 by 2030-31, and if an increasing number leave the profession due to burnout the estimated shortfall could double – meaning around half of posts would be vacant.

The Government has promised to recruit 6,000 extra GPs by 2024, but the Health Foundation says it is unlikely to do achieve this.

Anita Charlesworth, director of research at the Health Foundation and part of the REAL Centre, said: “It’s sobering that over the next decade things are set to get worse, not better.

“General practice is vital for a high quality and efficient health system, but the pressures it faces are longstanding, significant, and growing.”

She added that the Government urgently needs to retain existing GPs and practice nurses, to ensure that sufficient numbers are trained for the future.

The NHS England figures show that Oldham’s GPs are younger than elsewhere in the country.

Of the 137 FTE GPs in the area in May, 21 (15 per cent) were under 30 years old – compared to eight per cent across England.

The Royal College of GPs said the worst-case scenarios of the Health Foundation findings would be a “disaster for patient care and the NHS as a whole.”

Professor Martin Marshall, chairman of the RCGP, said: “GPs and our teams have been working under intense workload and workforce pressures for many years, but the pandemic has exacerbated these pressures.

“More consultations are being made every month in general practice than before the pandemic, and the care being delivered is increasingly complex.

“Yet, although recruitment efforts mean more GPs are in training than ever before, numbers of fully trained, full-time equivalent GPs are falling.”

The Department of Health and Social Care said a record-breaking number of GPs started training last year.

A DHSC spokesman said: “We are hugely grateful to GPs and their staff for the care they provide to patients and we are working hard to support and grow the workforce in order to bust the Covid backlogs.

“We have invested £520 million to expand GP capacity during the pandemic, on top of £1.5 billion until 2024 and we are making 4,000 training places available for GPs each year to help create an extra 50 million appointments a year.”

NHS Greater Manchester Integrated Care was contacted for comment.

Commenting on oversubscribed GPs in March, the NHS Oldham CCG, which was replaced by NHS Greater Manchester Integrated Care this month, said: “In 2017, there were 143 GPs, excluding locums and trainee doctors, in Oldham, working across 44 practices. According to the latest NHS Digital data1, there are currently 140 GPs working across 39 practices.

“This data reflects the national picture of a stagnation in the growth of the number of GPs since 2015. In the same period, the number of patients registered with a practice in Oldham has increased from 246,039 to 262,400. Again, this trend is reflected nationally.

“The number of practices has decreased by an average of one practice per year over the last five years. However, in Oldham there are 0.53 fully qualified GPs per 1,000 patients (excluding trainees and locums), which is above the national average of 0.45.

“Although the number of patients has increased, and the number of GPs has broadly stayed the same, general practice appointment bookings have reached a record high in the last few months.

“Nationally, there were half a million more appointments in January 2022, compared to January 2020. In the same period, GP appointments in Oldham increased by 16 per cent from 50,477 to 58,601.

“In recent years, there have been a number of national objectives aimed at increasing both the number of staff in general practice and the variety of roles.

“The emphasis on workforce has begun to shift to ensure that patients see the right person in the right place, first time.

“During the pandemic, patients will have seen a move by practices towards ‘triage systems’ which helps direct them to the most appropriate clinical professional to meet their needs.

“This is important to factor in when looking at the number of GPs working at particular practices, as different providers use different staffing models: there is no mandated workforce model for general practice and providers can choose the blend of staff which they think will best meet the needs of their patients.

“Whilst GPs continue to be the pivot point for practices, the roles carried out by nurses, pharmacists, healthcare support workers and other clinical professionals are just as vital.

“NHS Oldham CCG will continue to work with practices to address these issues outlined above.

“In the last 12 months, we have invested £42k in a scheme which focuses on providing GP trainees with the knowledge and skills to work in areas of disadvantage within the locality.

“Trainees will be encouraged to continue working in the areas in which they train, with aim of improving the availability and quality of healthcare in those areas and reduce health inequalities.

“The CCG will continue to invest significant money and resources in 2022/23 into improving the rates of GP retention and recruitment in the short- and long-term.”